Global lighting manufacturers such as Philips, Osram has introduced low-priced light bulbs, LED bulbs next year is expected to lower and lower retail prices 3 percent, accelerating popularity of LED lighting. Foreign CLSA believes that LED industry will enter a period of the next year and a half of the recovery period, promising epitaxial crystal maker electric and ceramic substrate plant Tongxin electricity.
CLSA noted that international a maker of LED bulbs (400 lumens / replace 25-watt incandescent bulb), the retail price of 8-9 dollars from this year, down to next year's $ 6, a drop of 30%. If the manufacturing cost from the lamp (BOM) analysis, the largest decline is no longer LED chip, but the electric heating (agencies, driver IC, cooling) and other components.
LED chips in the past two years, mainly global overcapacity, prices fell nearly 8 percent, starting next year a more balanced supply and demand industry, decline unlike in previous years so great. In addition, LED chips accounted for only 35% of the cost of light bulbs, electrical heating accounting for up to 65% or more, so international companies reduce costs, it will heat and other mechanical and electrical components as a priority. Lyon estimates, a 400 lumen LED bulb, LED chips which cost next year will drop 2% to $ 1.4, mechanical and electrical components will be hot price 36% to $ 2.1, add up the total cost of 3.5 U.S. dollars, reaching the retail price of 6 dollar is not difficult.
Lyon analysis, with the Chinese on the upstream LED epitaxy machine subsidies at the end of this year, grain mill capacity expansion next year will be more rational and healthy. Coupled with the lighting needs steady growth, the global demand for LED chips will grow 35% next year. LED industry in decline after eight consecutive quarters, is expected to enter up to 18 months of recovery period. Taiwan factory supply chain, Lyon named Epistar, because the future of lighting needs in three major international manufacturers Philips, Osram and strange, and Epistar have orders. Epistar next year utilization rate increased to 90% (85% this year), will also improve product mix, ie backlight to reduce low-margin, high-profit lighting increases. Epistar from estimated gross margin of 20% next year.
